A Final Wrap on the 2024 Election - WT Wealth Management November 2024 Special Market Update

Over the next several weeks, we expect volatility to remain elevated heading into year-end as investors rapidly position themselves after Donald Trump’s historic Presidential victory on November 5th. Stephen “Grover” Cleveland is the only other two-term non-consecutive President serving as the 22nd and 24th President of the United States from 1885 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897. (1)

Republicans now control the Oval Office, Senate and House of Representatives. Dozens of times over the last few years we have said “the markets like clarity.” The financial markets now have that.

Trump’s rhetoric will be closely watched by market participants and could push markets around in advance of actual policy.


Wall Street sentiment appears to be focused on domestic growth, deregulation, and open markets. There is an assumption that merger and acquisition (M&A) activity will increase and potential tax cuts on social security, tips and overtime are high on the agenda. If the tax cut policies materialize, it creates a strong backdrop for equities as the American consumers will have more money in their pockets and may spend it on home improvement, travel, electronics or invest in the stock market.

Some expected beneficiaries of Trump's victory are the Financial Sector from banking deregulation and Energy Sector from “drill baby drill”, a 2008 Republican mantra (2) revived by the 2024 Trump campaign to refocus the United States’ energy investment on “traditional” oil and gas. Other sectors may benefit from Trump's policies, such as Aerospace & Defense, Infrastructure Technology, Cryptocurrencies and any industry that would be positively affected by broadening incentives for non-traditional gig-workers.

Trump Victory Themes
Aerospace & Defence
Traditional Energy
M&A Financials
Semi-Chips & Infastructure Technology
Cryptocurrencies


On the other side of your portfolio, bond traders clearly feel the election results may create a challenging environment for fixed income. We have already seen a sharp rise in interest rates over the last six weeks (the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.43% as of November 15th, up from 3.74% on October 1st). President Trump has vowed to not only increase tariffs on China but potentially across the board with all U.S. trade partners. Wall Street economists estimate that tariffs could add an additional 1-1.5% to inflation levels in 2025 and beyond. Heightened inflation could alter the Fed’s current rate cutting plans resulting in higher rates, which will drag on fixed income performance. Deficit spending is also bearish for bonds.

Markets absolutely crave resolution; we now have that.


Protracted election results and/or extended court battles would have been very upsetting to the financial markets. Political experts feel Trump will be different in his second term compared to his first. Looking back, few believed Trump would win in 2016 and he may have been far less prepared to build an effective cabinet and sound policies.

Now that he has four years of experience under his belt and the Republicans control the Executive and Legislative branches, we expect his administration to quickly push through major legislation within the first 180 days and the economy and stock market should feel an immediate effect.

SOURCES

  1. wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland
  2. wikipedia.org/wiki/Drill,_baby,_drill



WARRANTIES & DISCLAIMERS

There are no warranties implied.
Any opinions expressed on this website are the opinions of WT Wealth Management and its associates only. Material listed on this website is neither an offer to buy or sell securities nor should it be interpreted as personal financial advice. You should always seek out the advice of a qualified investment professional before deciding to invest. Investing in stocks, bonds, mutual funds and ETF’s carry certain specific risks and part or all of your account value can be lost.

At WT Wealth Management we strongly suggest having a personal financial plan in place before making any investment decisions including understanding your personal risk tolerance and having clearly outlined investment objectives.

View Disclosure
WT Wealth Management is an SEC registered investment adviser, with in excess of $100 million in assets under management (AUM) with offices in Flagstaff, Scottsdale, Sedona and Tucson, AZ along with Jackson Hole, WY and Las Vegas, NV. WT Wealth Management is a manager of Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs). With SMAs, performance can vary widely from investor to investor as each portfolio is individually constructed and managed. Asset allocation weightings are determined based on a wide array of economic and market conditions the day the funds are invested. In an SMA, each investor may own individual Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), individual equities or mutual funds. As the manager we have the freedom and flexibility to tailor the portfolio to address an individual investor's personal risk tolerance and investment objectives – thus making the account “separate” and distinct from all others we manage. An investment with WT Wealth Management is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of WT Wealth Management and its associates only. Information offered is neither an offer to buy or sell securities nor should it be interpreted as personal financial advice. Always seek out the advice of a qualified investment professional before deciding to invest. Investing in stocks, bonds, mutual funds and ETFs carries certain specific risks and part or all of an account's value can be lost. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, narrowly focused investments, investments in smaller companies, sector and/or thematic ETFs and investments in single countries typically exhibit higher volatility. International, Emerging Market and Frontier Market ETFs, mutual funds and individual securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuations in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability that other nations experience. Individual bonds, bond mutual funds and bond ETFs will typically decrease in value as interest rates rise. A portion of a municipal bond fund's income may be subject to federal or state income taxes or the alternative minimum tax. Capital gains (short and long-term), if any, are subject to capital gains tax. Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or investment losses. At WT Wealth Management, we strongly suggest having a personal financial plan in place before making any investment decisions including understanding personal risk tolerance, having clearly outlined investment objectives and a clearly defined investment time horizon. WT Wealth Management may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption. WT Wealth Management's website is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of WT Wealth Management's website should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as WT Wealth Management's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by WT Wealth Management with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. A copy of WT Wealth Management's current written disclosure statement discussing WT Wealth Management's registrations, business operations, services, and fees is available at the SEC's investment adviser public information website (www. adviserinfo.sec.gov) or from WT Wealth Management directly. WT Wealth Management does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to WT Wealth Management's web site or incorporated therein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

Contact Us Today

Reach us directly at 800-825-0616
or by using the contact form below.

Your message has been sent. Thank you!
Cancel