WT Wealth Management - Facts are Empowering

Merriam-Webster defines "outlier" as "a data point that is markedly different in value or atypical of others in a sample data set." (1) In the financial markets, anytime you have to go back decades to find a comparable circumstance, you know you are looking at an outlier event. 2022, so far, certainly fits that definition.

1981 was the last time we experienced inflation pressures this high and 1994 was the last time we saw a Federal Reserve as hawkish against inflation as the one we see today. Over the past 46 years we find only one other instance (in 2008) of double-digit drawdown for a traditional 60/40, equity/bond portfolio.

60/40 Portfolio: US Stocks and Bonds Total Returns
@charliebilello via twitter – June 16th 2022


But that's the good news. If you projected the above results to most investors, they would eagerly and cheerfully say, "sign me up!" For those of us already invested, this is also the reason to stay with the plan, even if we are currently in the midst of one of those outlier events.

Even the most discouraged investor should be able to find encouragement in the historical chart below, which shows that many of the weakest years in the S&P 500 have been followed by some of the best. Staying focused on longer-term 3-year and 6-year return cycles, the results are quite good.

S&P 500 Return Cycles
Courtesy of Lincoln Financial


The last piece of optimism I'll impart is that stocks very rarely finish at their low point for the calendar year. As you can see by the chart below, reflecting 42 years from 1980 thru 2021, even in years with measurable drawdowns stocks have showed amazing resiliency, finishing consistently above the low point for the year (100% of the time) and frequently in positive ground (83% of the time – all but 7 years).


Stocks Have Usually Risen Despite Intra-Year Corrections

S&P 500 (%) by Calendar Year
Courtesy of First Trust ETFs


Let me be clear: This article is by no means intended to be my bold prediction for a stunning reversal in the second half of 2022. The stock market is a forward-looking mechanism and it has been pricing in a recession for months. Only time will tell if it was warranted or a false flag.

Supply chain issues and inflation pressures continue to harm the psyche of the American people and that ultimately affects spending (currently the only thing that may stand between us and recession). Fortunately, spending remains quite robust; just go to a restaurant, airport or hotel and you'll see no shortage of economic activity in consumer discretionary areas.

Energy prices, inflation reports, unemployment numbers, consumer sentiment data, and of course Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all heavily reviewed and closely analyzed by the WT Wealth Management Investment Committee and are carefully factored into the security selection and weighting in each of our investment models.

Fear is often fostered in the absence of information. We hope these facts are empowering. As we have said many times (and as the charts above show), a bad year is not going to derail any plan that has a long-term horizon.

Now is the time to talk to your advisor and make sure the current plan you have in place is aligned with your objectives for the next several years. Then rest easy, knowing that you have done your part.


Sources
  1. Definition of Outlier
    merriam-webster.com



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At WT Wealth Management we strongly suggest having a personal financial plan in place before making any investment decisions including understanding your personal risk tolerance and having clearly outlined investment objectives.

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WT Wealth Management is an SEC registered investment adviser, with in excess of $100 million in assets under management (AUM) with offices in Flagstaff, Scottsdale, Sedona and Tucson, AZ along with Jackson Hole, WY and Las Vegas, NV. WT Wealth Management is a manager of Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs). With SMAs, performance can vary widely from investor to investor as each portfolio is individually constructed and managed. Asset allocation weightings are determined based on a wide array of economic and market conditions the day the funds are invested. In an SMA, each investor may own individual Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), individual equities or mutual funds. As the manager we have the freedom and flexibility to tailor the portfolio to address an individual investor's personal risk tolerance and investment objectives – thus making the account “separate” and distinct from all others we manage. An investment with WT Wealth Management is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of WT Wealth Management and its associates only. Information offered is neither an offer to buy or sell securities nor should it be interpreted as personal financial advice. Always seek out the advice of a qualified investment professional before deciding to invest. Investing in stocks, bonds, mutual funds and ETFs carries certain specific risks and part or all of an account's value can be lost. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, narrowly focused investments, investments in smaller companies, sector and/or thematic ETFs and investments in single countries typically exhibit higher volatility. International, Emerging Market and Frontier Market ETFs, mutual funds and individual securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuations in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability that other nations experience. Individual bonds, bond mutual funds and bond ETFs will typically decrease in value as interest rates rise. A portion of a municipal bond fund's income may be subject to federal or state income taxes or the alternative minimum tax. Capital gains (short and long-term), if any, are subject to capital gains tax. Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or investment losses. At WT Wealth Management, we strongly suggest having a personal financial plan in place before making any investment decisions including understanding personal risk tolerance, having clearly outlined investment objectives and a clearly defined investment time horizon. WT Wealth Management may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption. WT Wealth Management's website is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of WT Wealth Management's website should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as WT Wealth Management's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by WT Wealth Management with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. A copy of WT Wealth Management's current written disclosure statement discussing WT Wealth Management's registrations, business operations, services, and fees is available at the SEC's investment adviser public information website (www. adviserinfo.sec.gov) or from WT Wealth Management directly. WT Wealth Management does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to WT Wealth Management's web site or incorporated therein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

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